The Tar Heel football team (3-4, 0-3 ACC) will journey to “Mr. Jefferson’s University,” this Saturday, Oct. 26th to face the Virginia Cavaliers (4-3, 2-2 ACC) at noon Eastern Time. The 129th playing of the South’s Oldest Rivalry, a series which North Carolina leads 66-58-4, is a superb opportunity for the Heels to pick up a badly-needed victory. Coming off of four straight losses and their bye week, Carolina opened as a 4.5-point underdog against the Hoos, who suit up at home after a gutsy losing effort on the road against the top-10 ranked Clemson Tigers. Both offenses in Charlottesville this weekend are top 50 FBS units in yardage, while both defenses have struggled.

The Matchup

Ever since UNC yielded 70 points at home against JMU, the secret was out that, yet again, the defense is the weak side of the ball for the Tar Heels. After seven games, Carolina has allowed an average of 399.9 yards per game (YPG). This makes them 103rd out of 134 FBS programs in that statistical category. They rank a commensurately bad 107th in scoring defense, at 30.43 opposing PPG. Fortunately for the Heels, UVA has also struggled defensively. The Hoos rank 108th in total defense, permitting 406 opposing YPG. While the Hoos can’t keep opponents from moving the ball, they rank a much better 78th place in scoring defense, having surrendered 25.71 opposing PPG. Both defenses look better against the run than when attacked through the air. That said, while Virginia (133.4 YPG) is significantly better than UNC (160.3 YPG) against the run, the Tar Heels (239.6 YPG) have the advantage in pass defense, a category in which UVA (272.6 YPG) is a bottom 15 FBS team. Big plays remain a bugaboo for UNC’s defense this season, and that is reflected in their higher average yards per completion and yards per rush when compared with UVA.

Neither defensive unit is all that impressive, positioning the opposing offenses for an opportunity at a high-scoring Saturday. UNC’s rushing offense is 30th best in the country, averaging nearly 200 YPG. The news gets even better considering that Carolina’s offensive line is fully healthy again after the bye week and should be able to give junior RB Omarion Hampton extra help on the ground, as if he needs it. Hampton averaged 4.6 yards per carry (YPC) against the strongest defense he has faced, the Pitt Panthers (10th best rush defense in the nation in YPG allowed) racking up 106 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. Hampton has 901 rushing yards on the season and will look to break 1,000 against the Hoos, who have given up nearly 40 more YPG rushing than those stingier Panthers. The Virginia rushing attack, which ranks 66th (159.6 YPG), is led by Kobe Pace and Xavier Brown, who have amassed 366 yards each (though Brown with a more efficient 7.2 YPC). In the passing game, UVA (36th in FBS, 262.7 YPG) holds a modest edge over UNC (54th, 245.7 YPG). Cavalier QB Anthony Colandrea has been significantly more accurate and somewhat more mobile than Carolina’s Jacolby Criswell this season. Both are comparable in touchdown-to-interception ratio and in average yards per pass attempt, with a slight edge to Colandrea. Overall, UNC’s offense has been somewhat more effective at moving the ball and scoring than UVA: Carolina ranks 27th in total offense (444.4 YPG) and 36th in scoring (32.9 PPG), while UVA is 48th in total offense (422.3 YPG) and 72nd in scoring (28 PPG). Where the Tar Heels have a decisive edge is in the red zone, as 63% of their RZ trips have ended in touchdowns, compared with 40% for the Hoos.

The Bottom Line

This game is an inflection point for the 2024 Tar Heels. Their last four outings have all ended in defeat and included:

• a defensive abomination against G5 opponent James Madison
• a 20-point 2nd half choke at rival Duke
• a competitive loss against still-undefeated top-25 Pitt
• a heartbreaking loss to Georgia Tech wherein the Heels, who valiantly battled to knot the game at 34, permitted the Yellowjackets a game-winning 68-yard touchdown run with 16 seconds remaining in regulation.

There were a lot of execution issues. As we’re used to hearing in postgame press conferences, there were several plays that, “could have gone differently,” and led to the Heels coming away with wins against Duke and Georgia Tech. Head coach Mack Brown insists that this roster is better than its record. True though this may be, the ugly reality remains that Carolina is over halfway through with the season and staring down an uncertain path to bowl eligibility.

Beyond the four consecutive losses – three in truly heinous fashion – legacy is on the line. Following the Georgia Tech game, the Carolina family learned that 23-year old Tar Heel WR Tylee Craft had passed away after a two year battle with lung cancer. The team was aware that Craft was in hospice care and he was honored during the game by graduate WR JJ Jones, who poignantly wore Craft’s jersey en route to 3 receptions for 64 yards and a touchdown. In Craft’s memory, the WR room will continue to have one player wear his jersey each week. There will be a lot of young men in the Tar Heel locker room playing the rest of this season for their friend. There is also Coach Brown’s legacy to consider, as this year feels increasingly like his last on the sideline at Kenan. The playoff and the ACC championship have been out-of-reach since JMU – as if these goals were truly ever in consideration – but earning a bowl bid would be a fitting way to honor the memory of a deceased teammate and to write the final chapter for a legendary coaching career. The Virginia game is a chance which the Heels must seize, and we believe that they will.

How to Watch

Projected to be partly cloudy with a high of 73 degrees, it will be a beautiful day for football in Charlottesville. Fans not in attendance at Scott Stadium on Saturday will be able to grace their television sets with the broadcast via the fabled CW Network – a venue which fits the ACC about as well as Cal and Stanford. Such is the state of the, “All Coast Conference,” in AD 2024.