The Heels Take a Trip to Tallahassee!

The North Carolina Tar Heels (4-4, 1-3 ACC) are coming off of a very positive two week stretch where their offensive and defensive lines got to full health during the first bye week and helped propel the team to a dominant victory at Virginia to get to .500 on the season. This Saturday at 3:30, UNC will visit Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida to face the reeling Florida State Seminoles (1-7, 1-6 ACC), who opened as a two-point underdog at home. It is an opportunity that the Heels must seize to keep their bowl goal alive.

Sporting a 13-1 record and the ACC crown last season, FSU was a team many felt was robbed of a spot in the last four-team version of the College Football Playoff. The only team that was, in fact, robbed last year was back-to-back defending champion Georgia (one-loss Texas in over one-loss UGA, really?), but that’s a debate for another time. What is not up for debate is that Florida State has been disappointing ever since the aforementioned Bulldogs walloped them 63-3 in the Orange Bowl last December. Flipping the calendar, Mike Norvell’s fifth year at the helm promised to be another chance for FSU to try to win the conference and gain some kind of national retribution for the way that they were slighted in 2023 after starting QB Jordan Travis went down with a season-ending injury. Instead, it’s been a disaster from the start. A three-point loss in Ireland to Georgia Tech in week one became part of an intercontinental losing streak that has only seen respite in an uninspiring 14-9 victory against ACC-newcomer California. Even in that game, the Cal Golden Bears outgained FSU, but failed to turn those surplus yards into enough points. FSU is no longer in bowl contention and, aside from a rivalry game against the Florida Gators, they have nothing but pride to play for the rest of the way.

Tallahassee has historically been a scary place for the Tar Heels. Since FSU joined the ACC in 1992, Carolina has only beaten them twice at Doak Campbell Stadium (consecutive 37-35 upsets in 2010 & 2016). Furthermore, UNC’s all-time record against FSU is an ugly 3-17-1, largely the work of the late great Bobby Bowden. UNC head coach Mack Brown, who lettered as a running back at Florida State in the early 1970s, has faced the Seminoles 11 times from the opposite sideline and never managed to beat his alma mater. Eight of those losses have come from Brown’s two tenures at UNC, while the other three occurred during his three seasons at Tulane. For those who may wonder, none of Brown’s Texas teams played Florida State and, indeed, Texas and FSU have never met on the gridiron in the history of the two programs – keep that in your back pocket for trivia night. Back to 2024, let’s look at how this year’s Heels and Noles compare as Brown tries to vanquish his losing streak:

The Matchup

A blowout win at UVA has touched up UNC’s statistics considerably since last week, but they still rank behind FSU ever so slightly on that side of the ball. Carolina ranks 88th out of 134 FBS teams in total defense, allowing 385.9 yards per game (YPG) and 5.75 yards per play (YPP). In scoring defense, the Heels are 95th, surrendering 28.38 points per game (PPG). Florida State, meanwhile, is 80th in total defense and 82nd in scoring defense, yielding 379.4 YPG, 5.54 YPP, and 26.38 PPG. Against the pass, Florida State is much better. The Noles are 40th, allowing 200.1 YPG through the air, while UNC is 105th and gives up 244.8 YPG. FSU does a better job at preventing explosive pass plays, as they yield nearly one full yard less per pass attempt to opposing quarterbacks.

Carolina is a better unit against the run. The Tar Heels rank 65th against the rush, permitting 141.1 YPG, while FSU is 105th (179.2 YPG) and surrenders a little over half a yard more per carry than UNC does. Florida State (51% red zone touchdown rate) has been somewhat better than Carolina (58%) at stopping opponents in the red zone. UNC has a modest edge in making opposing QBs hit the dirt, ranking 12th in sacks (25 for 155 yards) while FSU is 25th (21 for 108 yards). Both teams are underwater when it comes to turnover margin, but FSU is a lot worse at 126th (3 gained, 13 lost) than UNC is at 86th (8 gained, 10 lost).

Both defenses are eminently beatable. If there’s a sign of hope for either defensive staff, it’s that FSU is decent at limiting opponents through the air. UNC’s sack total is impressive on its face, but a disproportionate number of sacks came last week against UVA, so we’ll have to see the trend continue in Tallahassee to really believe in it. One point in favor of Carolina’s pressure being for real is that the defensive line had its star player back at 100% health last week: DE Kaimon Rucker, who had three of UNC’s ten sacks against UVA, felt much more himself in his third game of the season than he did two weeks prior when he initially returned from injury.

FSU’s slightly superior overall defensive figures can be chalked up to the fact that, while the Noles are getting abysmal results on the scoreboard this year, their roster is more gifted. FSU has out-recruited Carolina the last two seasons. More importantly, they have reeled in three top ten incoming transfer classes in the past three seasons, while Carolina hasn’t snatched anywhere near that amount of talent from other programs. From a predictive standpoint, the difference in quality between these defenses is negligible, though it must be noted that UNC’s worse numbers have been generated against a much weaker schedule than FSU has had to play. Advantage: moderate, FSU.

On offense, Carolina is far better than Florida State. The Tar Heels are 28th in total offense, gaining 442.4 YPG on 6.08 YPP, and 30th in scoring offense at 33.9 PPG. FSU is one of the five worst offenses in the country: 131st in total offense (272.5 YPG, 4.46 YPP) and 132nd in scoring (14.9 PPG). Across the board, UNC holds a decisive advantage at moving the ball and putting points on the board. The Heels have thrown for 251.6 YPG, making them 48th in passing offense, with 12.82 yards per completion (YPC). FSU, plagued by inexplicable drops, sits at a lowly 101st with 192.1 air YPG, though they do average a respectable 11.82 YPC.

Appalling as those figures are for the Noles, their running game is even worse – no great surprise for a team that has been down on the scoreboard most of the season. FSU is 130th in rushing, with 80.4 YPG on only 2.81 yards per carry (YPC). Carolina, on the other hand, has made running the ball a strength this year, as any team with a top five, future-NFL running back should. UNC has racked up 190.8 YPG on the ground and 4.97 YPC, good enough to rank 34th in the FBS in rushing yardage. The Tar Heels have also been more successful than the Noles in the red zone: 61% of UNC red zone drives have ended in a touchdown, compared to 56% for FSU. Furthermore, FSU has only generated about half as many red zone trips as Carolina this season. Florida State’s offensive line has struggled immensely. Beyond the Noles’ difficulty in running the ball, they’ve allowed 23 sacks (110th nationally). No one would argue that Carolina’s line is world-beating, but they have only 14 sacks (58th) to their discredit and their performance has been competent enough to support healthy yardage totals across the offense.

QB Brock Glenn (45.1%, 392 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs in three starts) is expected to start for the Seminoles, with DJ Uiagalelei still out. Freshman Luke Kromenhoek seems likely to get some snaps just as he has in FSU’s last two games. Kromenhoek is more of a threat on his feet than Glenn, so expect to see him used to keep the Carolina defense honest on the ground. Fresh off the best performance of his collegiate career, UNC’s Jacolby Criswell (57.1%, 1,660 yards, 10 TDs, 3 INTs in six starts*) is the better signal caller, though he’ll be facing the most formidable coverage he has seen since the Duke game. Carolina possesses an edge on FSU in every meaningful aspect of the offense. In the major metrics like passing and rushing yardage, the difference could hardly be more stark. Advantage: considerable, UNC.

The Bottom Line

The Florida State Seminoles are a truly awful football team. That being said, if Virginia was the get-right game for Carolina, FSU threatens to be the trap. The Tar Heels must not play down to their competition. Barring an unusual number of Carolina turnovers, FSU’s path to victory runs through the air. By the numbers, UNC is the worst defense the Noles will have played to this point. Brock Glenn’s best game leading the Seminole offense came against Clemson (23/41 for 228 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) and Carolina is a much more generous pass defense than the Tigers, both in terms of total yardage and explosive plays. The Tar Heel D-line’s newfound effectiveness at getting to the quarterback must continue this week to limit downfield risk.

Carolina enters coming off of an emotional six weeks of football: four straight losses and the death of Tylee Craft, punctuated by a cathartic statement win on the road at UVA. If recent Tar Heel football history is any guide, that catharsis ends in a baffling calamity on Saturday afternoon. But it doesn’t have to. Carolina is simply better than FSU and should beat them by a sound margin. We expect a big day on the ground for star RB Omarion Hampton, as the Noles reside in the bottom quartile in rushing yardage allowed. While there is a lingering risk that FSU gets hot through the air, Carolina’s improving pass rush and the strong likelihood of Brock Glenn turning the ball over ought to mitigate that enough for UNC to earn their fifth win of the season.

How to Watch

Projected to be partly cloudy with a high of 87 degrees and a slight chance of precipitation, gameday conditions will be a bit warmer than Carolina football is used to at the beginning of November. The game will air starting at 3:30 p.m. on the ACC Network.

* Technically, Criswell has only five starts, but he played the vast majority of snaps against NC Central in relief of Conner Harrell, from whom he won the starting job that afternoon.