Will the Heels Get to Six?

North Carolina (5-4, 2-3 ACC) is fresh off their second bye week and a pair of dominant road victories over Virginia and FSU. On Saturday, they will meet the in-state rival Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-5, 2-3 ACC) for a night game in beautiful Kenan Stadium. The Tar Heels opened as 11-point home favorites and will be expected to capture bowl eligibility with a sixth win that would also bring them up to .500 in conference play. Carolina’s last three matchups against Wake have all been thrilling shootout victories, and the Heels lead the all-time series 72-36-2.

This season, the struggling Deacs have proven to be road warriors by prevailing in close fashion in all three of their away games thus far (against NC State, UConn, and Stanford). After beating Charlotte and NC Central, the Tar Heels have lost three straight at home. These records are slightly ominous, as is the fact that Carolina lost the last time it was a double digit favorite (James Madison). But before we make any rash assumptions, let’s take a peek under the hood.

The Matchup

In a refreshing change-of-pace from most years, Florida State was really good for UNC’s defensive numbers. The Tar Heel defense currently ranks 66th out of 134 in total defense (365.3 YPG, 5.64 YPP) and 81st in scoring defense (26.44 PPG). Wake Forest’s defense has performed much worse this season, though it is true they’ve also faced a tougher schedule which has included two of the very best offenses in the country (Ole Miss and Clemson). The Demon Deacons are 120th in total defense (446.3 YPG, 6.05 YPP) and 113th in scoring defense (32.67 PPG).

The Tar Heels have been decisively better at getting to the QB. They are 4th in sacks (32 for 200 yards) while Wake Forest is way down at 107th (13 for 80 yards). 17 of UNC’s 32 sacks have come in the last two games, which partly reflects the poor quality of the opponents but also the full health and improved play of the Tar Heel defensive line. UNC has been the better team at getting off the field on 3rd down. Carolina’s defense wins 3rd down 67% of the time – the 26th best rate in the country – whereas Wake has only stopped 57.4% of opposing 3rd down plays (97th). When it comes to stopping opponents in the red zone, neither defense is all that great: 58% of UNC defensive red zone drives have ended in a touchdown, as opposed to 62% for the Deacs.

The Tar Heels are the superior unit against both air and ground attacks. UNC is a poor 94th in pass defense (235.2 YPG, 7.96 yards/att.). Wake is even worse – bottom five in the FBS, in fact – at 131st (298.6 YPG, 7.44 yards/att.). Both teams are generous in providing big plays to the opposing offense. Against the run, Carolina’s defense ranks decently at 47th in the country (130.1 YPG, 3.69 YPC). The Deacs are more middling at 69th (147.8 YPG, 4.39 YPC). Advantage: considerable, UNC.

As with the defense, Carolina’s offense is looking a lot better after their visit to Tallahassee. UNC is no. 20 in the FBS in total offense (448.8 YPG, 6.18 YPP) and 26th in scoring (34 PPG). This is a very impressive position for an offense that has had to start three different QBs this season. Props to Chip Lindsey for adjusting and taking care of business. Wake Forest is quite a bit lower, though not wholly ineffective, at 60th in total offense (398.1 YPG, 5.52 YPP) and 64th in scoring (28.1 PPG). In the red zone, the Tar Heels are a little bit more effective at cashing in their opportunities. 62.8% of UNC red zone drives have made it into the end zone, while Wake has done it 55% of the time on three more drives.

Airing the ball out is the only area where Wake Forest is truly better than Carolina. The Deacs are 36th in passing offense (259.4 YPG, 7.3 yards/att.), while UNC is 47th (247.1 YPG, 7.62 yards/att.). The QB matchup is a mixed bag, though we’d give the edge to UNC’s Jacolby Criswell for being smarter with the football. In seven starts, Criswell has completed 58.5% of his pass attempts for 1,871 yards, 11 touchdowns, and only 3 interceptions. Wake QB Hank Bachmeier has been more accurate in nine starts, completing 61.5% of his passes for 2,232 yards and 14 touchdowns, but he is also guilty of throwing 9 interceptions. Both QBs prefer the pocket and are not featured elements in the run game.

The Carolina O line has been getting better at protecting Criswell and ranks 54th in sacks allowed (15 for -102 yards), while the Demon Deacons have been an abysmally porous 120th (29 for -165 yards). Running the ball is one of the top strengths of the Tar Heels behind top 10 RB Omarion Hampton. Carolina ranks 21st in rushing (201.7 YPG, 5.01 YPC) to Wake’s 95th (138.7 YPG, 3.79 YPC). Both lead backs have been great at hanging onto the football, with only one fumble between them all year (Wake RB Demond Claiborne fumbled a kickoff return last Friday, resulting in a Cal touchdown). Advantage: considerable, UNC.

The Bottom Line

Is UNC’s offense a whole touchdown better than Wake in reality? Considering strength of schedule, probably not. And Wake can sneak up on a team, like they did to a shell-shocked NC State in the first week of October. A similar case could be made on the defensive side of the ball, but when you’re as far down the list as Wake is, you can’t blame it all on scheduling. The Tar Heels spotted James Madison 70 points on one infamous afternoon and still boast a significantly lower average in opponent points per game.

So across the board, Carolina is the better team. What about turnovers? As they say, ‘past performance is no guarantee of future results.’ But UNC is better in that department as well. The Heels are dead even in turnover margin (10 lost, 10 gained), while Wake Forest is -3 (15 lost, 12 gained). Carolina is a lot better at running the football and, should they end up having to throw a lot, Criswell has been far more reliable than Bachmeier at protecting the ball – he hasn’t thrown an interception since the end of September (knock on wood). Don’t be surprised if Saturday night produces a high-scoring, competitive game….. just like the Tar Heels’ last several meetings with the Deacs. And while they probably won’t cover that generous 11-point spread, expect Carolina to win.

How to Watch

The first night game in Kenan this year* is expected to see clear skies, high humidity, and cool temperatures (mid 50s or below). Coverage of the 8:00 pm kickoff for those who can’t go will be on ACC Network. For those who will be in town, the game is a blue-out (wear that Carolina blue!) and Military Appreciation Day. ACC Network will also be broadcasting “ACC Huddle” live from 2:00-8:00 pm on Polk Place in front of Wilson Library.

*6:00 pm against NC Central doesn’t count.