From Chapel Hill to Chestnut Hill

The newly bowl eligible Tar Heels (6-4, 3-3 ACC) journey this weekend to Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts to take on the Boston College Eagles (5-5, 2-4 ACC) in a cool, rainy noon game. North Carolina opened as a 2-point road favorite and is, of course, on a three-game winning streak which included road wins over Virginia and a reeling Florida State. Carolina’s all-time record against the Eagles is a somewhat small sample size as BC only began competing in the ACC in 2005. Nonetheless, UNC leads the series 6-2 (counting two UNC wins from the Butch Davis era that the NCAA considers vacated). The 2024 version of BC finishes their regular season against the 7-3 Pitt Panthers next weekend and so has extra incentive to beat the Heels this week to secure their spot in a bowl in head coach Bill O’Brien’s first season at the helm. The Eagles also enter with a bit of drama under their belt. Thomas Castellanos, BC’s starting quarterback for most of the season, was benched early in the second half in a 37-31 victory over Syracuse two weeks ago. After it was announced that backup QB Grayson James would continue to start for the Eagles, Castellanos let it be known that he would be leaving the program. James turned in a respectable effort (18/32, 237 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 rush TD) in last week’s 38-28 loss at SMU and his trajectory is one to watch.

Given the news that head coach Mack Brown apparently intends to return for at least one more season, it will be interesting to see if Carolina plays with a bit more edge. Think of the extra gear Florida seemed to possess last weekend when the Gators upset LSU shortly after it came out that Billy Napier would survive fan and booster anger for yet one more year. Psychologically, this weekend’s game at Alumni Stadium is setting up to be one of strength on strength: a team that wants to vindicate their returning coach vs. a team with a new coach trying to claw their way into a bowl after a challenging schedule. Mind-reading aside, let’s see what the numbers can tell us:

The Matchup

UNC’s defense profiles as 64th in the country in total defense (364.2 YPG, 5.59 YPP) and 78th in scoring (26.2 PPG). BC is just a little bit worse in total defense, at 78th (379.2 YPG, 5.7 YPP), but averages out more favorably in scoring at 65th (24.5 PPG).

Against the pass, UNC has a bit of an edge, though is more at-risk to give up chunk plays. The Heels are 91st (235.7 YPG, 7.78 yards/att.). BC is 106th (248.8 YPG, 7.4 yards/att.). This weekend’s rainy forecast may yet help each secondary look more respectable. Guarding the ground, the defenses are nearly identical: Carolina’s rushing defense is 45th (128.5 YPG, 3.68 yards/rush) while Boston College comes in at 47th (130.4 YPG, 3.96 yards/rush). In sacks, the Carolina defensive line holds a decisive advantage. The Tar Heels rank 5th in the country (34 for 208 yards). BC is a lowly 91st (17 for 115 yards).

As the old saying goes, you have to, ‘get off the field on 3rd down!’ Neither defense is exceptional at this, but Carolina is the better of the two. The Heels permit opponents to convert 34.3% of 3rd down plays, which is 31st in the FBS. Boston College ranks 51st, allowing opponents to move the chains on 3rd 36.3% of the time. When it comes to defending the red zone, the Eagles are much better. Carolina has let opponents score a touchdown on 60% of red zone opportunities while only 48.78% of red zone drives against Boston College have ended in a touchdown. Overall, the Tar Heels are better in more defensive categories, but the gulf is not that wide and big plays are still a problem for them. Advantage: marginal, UNC.

The Carolina offense’s brief moment in the statistical sun was brought to an end against Wake Forest. The Heels faced a stiffer defense – as compared to the prior two weeks – from a team that badly needed the win in Chapel Hill to have a shot at a bowl game. As a result, Carolina dropped from 20th down to 28th in total offense (440.1 YPG, 6.04 YPP). In scoring, UNC ranks 30th with 33.7 PPG. The BC offense has been a lot more sluggish: 94th in total offense (360.1 YPG, 5.56 YPP) and 72nd in scoring at 27.6 PPG.

UNC QB Jacolby Criswell is a senior from Morrilton, Arkansas and the third quarterback to start for Carolina this year. With 7 starts under his belt, Criswell has completed his passes at a 59% clip for a total of 2,003 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He has also rushed for 3 touchdowns, including one against Wake Forest last week. BC QB Grayson James also ran a touchdown in last weekend in the Eagles’ loss to the SMU Mustangs. The junior from Duncanville, Texas has only 2 starts to his name this year. He has completed 60% of his pass attempts for 456 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. James has scored 2 rushing touchdowns.

In the passing game, North Carolina holds a big advantage over BC. The Tar Heels are 57th in passing (235.6 YPG, 7.5 yards/att.) while the Eagles rank 113th out of 134 FBS teams (184.5 YPG, 7.88 yards/att.). Carolina is also a lot better at running the ball, though BC is at least somewhat competent in this area. UNC ranks 17th (204.5 YPG, 4.93 yards/rush) – led by the no. 2 running back in the country, junior Omarion Hampton – while BC is 50th in rushing (175.6 YPG, 4.24 yards/rush). Carolina’s protection has been better than BC as well: UNC is 66th in sacks allowed (20 for 129 yards) while the Eagles are 98th (25 for 141 yards).

Boston College has outperformed the Tar Heels on 3rd down this year. UNC converts 42.9% of its 3rd downs, good enough for 47th, while the BC offense gets the job done on 44.1% of its 3rd downs – the 36th best mark in the FBS. The red zone is another area where BC has done a better job. UNC scores a touchdown on 62.5% of its red zone trips. Boston College, on the other hand, makes it from red zone to end zone 72.2% of the time. BC has more of a killer instinct in key situations, but when it comes to moving the ball and creating opportunities, the Tar Heels are much better. Advantage: considerable, UNC.

The last statistical category we like to look at is turnover margin. Here, UNC is 54th, having gained 13 turnovers from opponents at the loss of 11 possessions themselves. BC, though they’ve turned the ball over more, have also created more turnovers and thus they rank 32nd with 18 gained and 14 lost.

The Bottom Line

Boston College needs this game in a way that Carolina does not. We all know what the coaches and players say to the press about focusing on this week’s game. Maybe Chapel Hill is full of true professionals masquerading as a barely above-.500 college team. Somehow, this prospect sounds doubtful. In reality, the Tar Heels are looking ahead to next week’s grudge match against NC State, against whom the program has embarrassed itself the last three years. There’s no way BC is overlooking this game. Of their two opportunities left to get to six wins, neither is a gimme, but Carolina is much more beatable than Pitt. At home this weekend, expect the Eagles to be on their A-game.

If the weather ends up being as rainy as projected, Carolina’s advantages in the passing game on both sides of the ball should be limited. The one way in which that might help the Tar Heels’ cause is in reducing the risk of BC deep shots. A run heavy game does favor Carolina substantially on paper, but BC is at least capable in this area, whereas they’ve looked hopeless through the air. If the Eagles can be a little disruptive, maybe force a turnover or two, all of a sudden their run game might be good enough to get the job done. Math tells us to pick Carolina. Our hearts tell us to pick Carolina. But, the gut feeling is Boston College. It should be a competitive, ugly game in any case.

How to Watch

For fans who plan to travel to Boston College for the game, conditions are expected to be rainy with temperatures in the mid-40s. The television broadcast will air on The CW Network at noon.