On Saturday, November 30th at 3:30 pm, the North Carolina Tar Heels (6-5, 3-4 ACC) welcome the rival NC State Wolfpack (5-6, 2-5 ACC) to Chapel Hill for a senior day grudge match. The Heels enter the contest off of a wholly inept blowout loss at Boston College and the firing of head coach Mack Brown, who will be coaching from the Kenan sideline for the last time this weekend. State arrives in Chapel Hill seeking bowl eligibility and the right to extend their win streak over Carolina to four years. The Wolfpack blew a chance to get to six wins last week in Atlanta, where they missed a walk-off field goal attempt by inches and fell 30-29 to Georgia Tech. For the Tar Heels, Saturday is a grand opportunity to deny their upstart rivals a bowl game and send the legendary Coach Brown out on a joyous note. UNC is 68-39-6 all time against NC State. A lot of underlying statistics can be thrown out the window during rivalry week, but let’s check the numbers for old time’s sake:

The Matchup

Carolina’s offense dropped out of the top 20 after a game in which they didn’t put together a scoring drive until the closing minutes. The Tar Heels are 42nd in total offense, which equates to 419.4 yards per game and 5.88 yards per play. In scoring they’ve fallen to 35th with 32.5 points per game. NC State ranks 89th in total offense, gaining 365.5 yards per game and 5.87 yards per play. In scoring the Wolfpack are 61st with 28.6 points per game.

A superior offense overall, Carolina has greatly surpassed the Wolfpack on the ground while being a little bit worse in the passing game. The Heels are 63rd in passing (230.2 ypg, 7.36 yards/att.) while State comes in at 61st (232 ypg, 7.4 yards/att.). In spite of virtually abandoning the run last week, UNC ranks a very strong 31st in the country in rushing yardage (189.2 ypg, 4.73 ypc). NC State is 94th (133.5 ypg, 4.32 ypc). On 3rd down, the Tar Heels convert 41.2% of the time, ranking 60th. State is 87th, succeeding on 38.1% of their 3rd downs. Carolina also holds the advantage in the red zone. The Tar Heels score touchdowns on 64.28% of red zone possessions, while the Wolfpack have made it from red zone to end zone only 55.55% of the time.

Carolina’s starting quarterback is senior Jacolby Criswell, from Morrilton, Arkansas, who has started 9 games. Criswell has completed 58.4% of his passes for 2,179 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He has also scored 3 rushing touchdowns. The Tar Heel quarterback has had to deal with many lapses in protection, as UNC is 95th in sacks allowed (27 sacks for 179 yards). Starting at QB for NC State is freshman CJ Bailey, of Hollywood, Florida. Bailey has started 9 games, in which he has completed 63.7% of his pass attempts for 1,941 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Bailey has rushed for 5 touchdowns. He has also had a bit cleaner pocket than Criswell this year, as the Wolfpack ranks 67th in sacks allowed (22 sacks for 123 yards). Advantage: considerable, UNC

In total defense, the Tar Heels rank 72nd, surrendering 369.3 yards per game and 5.56 yards per play. They give up 27.55 points per game, 84th least in the FBS. NC State is 80th in total defense, yielding 376.4 yards per game and 5.77 yards per play. The Wolfpack defense surrenders 30 points per game, the 103rd best mark. State is a bit better at getting stops on 3rd down, letting opponents convert 35.2% of the time (43rd) while UNC loses 3rd down 35.6% of the time (46th). NC State also has an advantage in the red zone, letting opponents score touchdowns on 53.33% of red zone drives, while Carolina fails to stop red zone drives 58.53% of the time.

Against the pass, UNC ranks 91st (231.7 ypg, 7.72 yards/att.) while NC State is 98th (238 ypg, 7.21 yards/att.). The Carolina defense is 52nd (137.5 ypg, 3.77 ypc) against the run, while the Wolfpack are 54th (138.4 ypg, 4.3 ypc). The Tar Heels are much better at putting the opposing quarterback on the ground, and rank 7th in sacks (35 sacks for 209 yards) while NC State is only 71st in this category (21 sacks for 141 yards). Advantage: marginal, UNC

UNC is tied for 70th in turnover margin, with an even 14 gained and 14 lost. NC State is more carless at 99th having gained 16 and lost 21 turnovers.

The Bottom Line

Whatever the game script, the Tar Heels absolutely must lean on the run. This is almost certainly Omarion Hampton’s last game in Carolina blue and it would be a shame, not to mention self-defeating, not to wield him to bludgeon the Pack into submission. The stakes are about as high as this matchup has seen in recent years: legacy vs. bowl eligibility. Carolina is the better team on paper and via the old eye test. The Tar Heels ought to win, but look out for a surprise. It’s UNC-NC State. It’s Mack Brown’s last game, and if Carolina wins it might be Dave Doeren’s last game in this rivalry too. Anything can happen. Go Heels!

How To Watch

Fans in Chapel Hill will have to bundle up, as Saturday is supposed to be partly cloudy and range from the mid-40s to high-30s during the game. For those staying home, it’s a 3:30 pm kickoff on the ACC Network.